September 25, 2022

Normal Dominique Trinquan, former head of the French navy mission to the UN, analyzes in Midi Libre the most recent developments in Ukraine and Russia, portray a portrait of an remoted Russian president cornered by nationalists in his personal nation and compelled to make guarantees to them.

How do you assess the group of referendums for the annexation of 4 areas of Ukraine to Russia from September 23 to 27 and the mobilization of 300,000 reservists introduced by Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, September 21?

These two statements are proof of the weak point of the Russian authorities, which understands that it’s shedding on the bottom. He seeks to strengthen his place and depends on reservists to make up for his shortcomings. However above all, this can be a sign for Russia to indicate that the chief takes duty and acts.

Might these referendums herald a navy escalation?

Sure, that is the purpose, nevertheless it won’t be achieved. Nobody acknowledges these referendums, apart from six or seven international locations, which is able to at all times say sure to Russia, and within the quick time period, mobilization won’t produce any outcomes.

It is a manner for Putin to not go for the overall mobilization that the extremists demand, and he pushes in entrance of his protection minister saying that that is his proposal…

Can all this open the best way to this normal mobilization and the flip to weapons of mass destruction, particularly nuclear weapons?

I do not imagine it. If he had used nuclear weapons (some specialists worry using weapons of mass destruction – editor’s be aware), Vladimir Putin would have signed his personal demise warrant. As for the overall mobilization, if that is the following step, then this may additional emphasize its weak point.

How is the stability of energy on earth altering?

Ukraine continues to advance within the space of ​​Kharkov and Izyum, however much less shortly than at the start, and plainly the Russians aren’t capable of restore the protection system.

Within the Kherson area, the suppression of Russian forces continues, Ukraine is transferring slowly, Russian logistics are undermined. Ukraine is able to having a numerical superiority between Kharkov and Izyum. The 300,000 individuals mobilized won’t all go to warfare, they usually should be skilled. Not tomorrow we’ll see them on earth.


Can Putin lose the warfare?

I imagine he has already misplaced the warfare. He begins to lose battles in Ukraine, and in Russia propaganda reaches its restrict. He’s compelled to take motion opposite to the soothing speech he delivered three days earlier.

President Putin is changing into more and more remoted on the worldwide stage, but additionally at dwelling, the place he’s pushed by the Russian nationalist present, therefore these statements. Let’s have a look at if this satisfies them, or if he’s nonetheless utilizing his benefit, some are asking for his departure. He feels cornered, he should act, in any other case his energy will elude him.

Is Ukraine’s counter-offensive supposed to place Volodymyr Zelensky in a robust place for future negotiations?

Sure, however I believe it can at all times be troublesome for Putin to barter. Then again, we should be very attentive to what is going to occur within the Kremlin, whether it is destabilized and others come to energy, this could change the scenario.

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